• From 647 applications worldwide, Hummingbird Bioscience was selected by an independent judging panel as a winner at the AI Discovery Awards hosted by Nebius
• The awards program spotlights companies leveraging AI to revolutionize biopharma, genomics, digital health, medical devices, and medical imaging
• Hummingbird Bioscience’s lab-in-the-loop AI Molecular Medicine platform has generated multiple clinical-stage therapies and is validated by a track record of strategic partnerships and out-licensing transactions

Singapore, 14 July 2026 – Hummingbird Bioscience (“Hummingbird”), a biotherapeutics company discovering and developing transformative medicines for diseases with significant unmet need, today announced that it has won the Asia Pacific Trailblazer Award at the 2026 AI Discovery Awards hosted by Nebius.

The AI Discovery Awards by Nebius spotlights companies leveraging artificial intelligence to revolutionize biopharma, genomics, digital health, medical devices and medical imaging. From 647 submissions globally, Hummingbird Bioscience emerged as a winner, recognizing the company’s AI-first approach and its potential for addressing unmet patient need across various disease areas. Winners were selected by an independent panel of 28 judges representing leading pharmaceutical companies, academic institutions, and venture capital firms.

“This recognition by the independent panel of judges at the AI Discovery Awards is an important validation of our AI-first approach to develop medicines: using an engineering mindset to turn complex biology into testable hypotheses, and then designing molecules around the therapeutic outcomes we want to achieve,” said Piers Ingram, PhD, Chief Executive Officer and co-founder of Hummingbird Bioscience. “Our AI workflows enable us to engineer medicines with potential for patient benefit, and accelerate the drug development process to reach the right patients faster. We are grateful to the judging panel for recognizing the team’s work, and we remain focused on advancing our clinical programs, expanding our platform capabilities and building strategic partnerships that can help bring innovative therapeutics to patients worldwide.”

Hummingbird Bioscience’s AI Molecular Medicine platform (AIMM) is an integrated, AI-first discovery and development engine that connects patient biology, drug design and optimization, and clinical development. The company’s Singapore-based research capabilities enable end-to-end discovery and development, and its global clinical strategy spans Asia, the United States and Europe.
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“At Hummingbird, our AI-first approach is designed to generate new therapeutic candidates with greater speed, precision and translational relevance to help address unmet needs across a broad range of diseases,” said Konrad Paszkiewicz, PhD, Chief Technology Officer of Hummingbird Bioscience. “Hummingbird couples deep insights from in silico and AI approaches with cutting-edge in vitro and in vivo experimental techniques to accelerate innovation in drug discovery and development. This integrated approach enables our team to work more efficiently, make faster and more informed decisions, and advance precision medicines with the potential to deliver meaningful benefit to patients as quickly as possible.”

Hummingbird Bioscience’s pipeline and partnerships underscore the clinical progress, commercial potential, and broader applicability of AIMM. The company is advancing multiple therapeutic candidates in clinical development, including HMBD-001, a HER3-targeting monoclonal antibody currently in Phase Ib/II clinical trials, and HMBD-501, a HER3-targeting antibody-drug conjugate currently in Phase I clinical trials. Its preclinical pipeline also includes ADC programs for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases, reflecting the potential of its platform beyond oncology. Hummingbird Bioscience’s AI-first approach is further validated by multiple collaborations, partnerships and licensing transactions with leading biopharmaceutical and life sciences organizations.
 
About Hummingbird Bioscience
Hummingbird Bioscience is a clinical-stage biotherapeutics company integrating AI and rigorous experimental science to bring more precise, scientifically grounded medicines to patients faster. Its lab-in-the-loop AI Molecular Medicine platform, AIMM, draws on over a decade of proprietary experimental, translational, and clinical data, learning from every new data point to prioritize hypotheses, select targets and indications, and design and optimize biotherapeutics. By combining AI with biological expertise and wet-lab validation, Hummingbird Bioscience has advanced several programs from concept to clinic in 12 months. Hummingbird Bioscience has engineered a deep pipeline with AIMM, including four programs in clinical trials and seven programs out-licensed or partnered. For more information, visit www.hummingbirdbioscience.com, and follow Hummingbird Bioscience on LinkedIn, X (formerly Twitter), and YouTube.


Hummingbird Bioscience Media Contact:
Crystal Ho
c.ho@hummingbirdbio.com
media@hummingbirdbio.com
+65 6979 5580
 
Hummingbird Bioscience Investor Contact:
investors@hummingbirdbio.com

Cedars Hill Group — June 8, 2026 — Friday gave us the kind of market day that looks simple on the surface and gets more interesting the longer you sit with it.

The jobs report was strong. Payrolls came in well above expectations, unemployment held steady, Treasury yields rose, the curve flattened, and the dollar rallied. On the surface, that is easy enough to explain: stronger labor market, less room for the Fed to ease, higher yields, stronger dollar.
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But the dollar buying was not a broad, thoughtful reassessment of the world. It was mechanical. The kind of move that happens when a thin summer market gets a clean macro input, positioning is wrong-footed, and systematic flows all reach for the same lever at the same time.

That matters because one of the recurring themes in our work has been that price is information, but price is not truth. Markets are auctions. Price advertises opportunity, time regulates that opportunity, and volume tells us whether the opportunity has been accepted. A low-volume summer rally can be real and fragile at the same time. It can tell us that buyers are currently in control without telling us that the underlying risks have disappeared.

This is where the dollar and gold become important.

Gold has broken down while the dollar is testing the high end of the range. That is a change in the story the market has been telling. Earlier this year, the precious metals complex became the expression of debasement, scarcity, and the move from financial assets toward physical assets. Now, at least tactically, the market is testing the other side of that story: higher yields, dollar strength, tech-led equity rally, and a renewed sensitivity to policy expectations.

The question is whether this is a real regime turn or just a mechanical reset.
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That is the right question because the recent market structure has become unusually one-sided. Over the past few weeks, nearly everything has traded as the inverse of the dollar and oil. Dollar down, oil down, risk assets up, gold up, duration bid. Dollar up, oil up, risk assets lower, gold lower, duration pressured.

These high-correlation macro regimes can be powerful, but they usually do not persist indefinitely because markets are not one-variable systems. Correlations rise when investors simplify the world under stress or when mechanical flows dominate the auction. They fall when asset-specific information starts to matter again.

Friday did not break that pattern. It strengthened it with the return of the “dollar wrecking ball.”

The strong jobs report brought back the 2022 muscle memory: higher yields, stronger dollar, weaker gold, weaker duration, weaker risk. The question is whether this was the last gasp of a crowded macro trade or the beginning of a more durable dollar wrecking ball regime.

The strange part is where the pressure showed up.

Risk appetite had recently shifted back into AI, Mag 7, and software after that trade was liquidated earlier in the year when gold was rallying and the market was favoring physical assets over financial assets. That earlier rotation made conceptual sense. AI capex was becoming a credit story. SaaS was under pressure from the possibility that AI would collapse software moats. The SaaSpocalypse was not just a stock market story; it was a change in the capital formation process. If AI makes software easier to reproduce, then the market has to rethink what kinds of assets deserve scarcity value.

But then IGV retraced most of its selloff. Tech came back. Risk appetite migrated back into the very assets that had been questioned only weeks earlier.

That is why Friday did not line up cleanly.

If the market were still trading “physical over financial,” gold and software should not be moving together. Gold should be the scarce physical hedge against financial asset fragility, while IGV should be vulnerable to higher rates, AI disruption, and credit concerns around tech spending. Instead, the gold-IGV correlation has increased. Both have become expressions of the same macro trade: short dollar liquidity when the dollar falls, long dollar stress when the dollar rises.

That is not physical over financial. That is the dollar wrecking ball.

In this regime, the market stops distinguishing between the reasons people own things. Gold is not trading like a monetary alternative. Software is not trading like an idiosyncratic AI disruption story. Both are trading like positions funded by the same liquidity condition. When the dollar weakens, the market can own everything. When the dollar strengthens, everything gets sold.

This is the macro blob becoming a wrecking ball.

The key question now is whether dispersion returns. If this was the last gasp, gold should begin to decouple from software, tech should separate between durable AI beneficiaries and SaaS companies with shrinking moats, and credit should start distinguishing between companies funding productive infrastructure and companies funding financial engineering. But if Friday marked the return of a true dollar wrecking ball regime, then the correlations are the message. The market is telling us that the marginal buyer and seller are no longer focused on physical versus financial, AI versus SaaS, or growth versus value.
They are focused on liquidity.

Commercial real estate is one place where this stress is already visible. CRED iQ reported that CMBS distress rose year-over-year in 17 of the 25 largest U.S. markets, with some markets seeing very sharp deterioration. This fits the broader theme we have been tracking for a while: higher rates do not just change valuation math. They change the capital formation process. They reveal which balance sheets were built for a world where capital was abundant and which ones can survive when money has a cost.
This is where AI adds another layer.

Software was the defining asset of the low-rate era because it scaled without obvious physical constraint. The SaaS model was almost the perfect ZIRP asset: high gross margins, recurring revenue, low marginal cost, and a story that could be capitalized far into the future. AI is different. AI may be software at the interface, but underneath it is physical. It needs chips, power, land, water, transmission, data centers, cooling systems, and long-duration capital.

That turns a technology story into a funding story, an energy story, a real estate story, and eventually a political story.

This is also why the IGV/gold correlation is so interesting. If the market were cleanly trading physical over financial, gold and software should be on opposite sides of the ledger. Gold would represent scarcity, money, and physical constraint. Software would represent duration, abstraction, and financialized growth. But recently they have started moving together because the dollar wrecking ball is overwhelming the distinction. When liquidity is abundant, the market buys both the monetary hedge and the AI growth story. When the dollar tightens, it sells both.

That does not disprove physical over financial. It tells us the theme is being temporarily subordinated to liquidity.

The longer-term issue is that AI is pulling software back into the physical world. The old software model promised scale without constraint. The AI model promises intelligence, but only through massive physical investment. That means the winners may still be technology companies, but the bottlenecks increasingly live in capital markets, energy grids, supply chains, permitting regimes, and geopolitical chokepoints.
So, the market is caught between two regimes. In the short term, the dollar wrecking ball is flattening everything into one macro trade. In the long term, AI is making the physical world matter more, not less. Friday belonged to liquidity. The next cycle may belong to whoever controls the scarce inputs.
Which brings us back to geopolitics.

The Strait of Hormuz was once a theoretical tail risk. Now it is an operational reality, and the Gulf states are moving to build redundancy because they have to. Pipelines, alternate ports, storage, shipping routes, and regional accommodations are not just infrastructure decisions. They are admissions that the old security architecture is no longer enough.

Interestingly this fits the direction of U.S. policy. The United States wants to reduce its need to intervene in the Middle East while preserving enough leverage to shape outcomes. That is a hard balance to strike. It requires allies to carry more of their own security burden, adversaries to believe escalation has costs, and markets to accept that the old American backstop is becoming more conditional.
Trump’s recent clash with Netanyahu is a perfect example of this shift. The public tension is not just personality drama. It reflects a changing U.S.-Israel relationship and a changing U.S. role in the region. Iran has demanded Israel pull back from Lebanon as a condition to end the war and the US wants Israel to comply, but Israel is desperate for the strategic depth it has gained in Lebanon. This puts US and Israeli interests at odds. That does not mean the alliance disappears. It means interests are being renegotiated in real time.

The equity market is rallying in thin summer conditions. The dollar wrecking ball is threatening an upside-breakout. Gold is breaking lower. CRE distress is spreading. AI is consuming more capital. Hormuz has moved from theoretical risk to operating constraint. The U.S. is trying to reduce its commitments in the Eastern Hemisphere without surrendering influence. Israel is discovering that even close allies have limits.
These are all expressions of the same transition: from abundance to scarcity, from financial assets to physical constraints, from old institutions to new arrangements, from clean labels to messy reality.

Source: ​https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/chg-issue-229-the-return-of-the-wrecking

Trading View — April 21, 2026 — ​Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II signed an Agreement and Plan of Merger to combine with Forge Nano in a stock transaction implying $1.2 billion of equity value for Closing Payment Shares at $10 per share, adjusted for assumed convertibles. The structure includes a Delaware reincorporation and a two-step merger, with up to 90 million earnout shares tied to stock price or revenue milestones over five years. To bolster deal certainty and funding, the Sponsor agreed to vote for the deal, forgo redemptions, and earmark up to 3.3 million shares to support potential financing. A lock-up with certain Forge Nano holders is intended to limit share transfers and support post-close stability. Closing remains subject to shareholder approvals, SEC effectiveness, HSR clearance and Nasdaq listing.
​
Agreement 1: Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II to Merge With Forge Nano in $1.2 Billion Stock Deal

• Agreement type: Agreement and Plan of Merger (Business Combination and Reincorporation)
• Counterparty: Forge Nano
• Signed / Effective: Apr 20 2026 / Apr 20 2026
• Duration / Termination: Until closing or termination
• Reason: Take Forge Nano public and create Forge Nano Holdings

Agreement 2: Archimedes Sponsor Backs Deal, Earmarks Up To 3.3M Shares for Financing

• Agreement type: Purchaser Support Agreement (voting, no-redemption, financing support)
• Counterparty: Archimedes Tech SPAC Sponsors II
• Signed / Effective: Apr 20 2026 / Apr 20 2026
• Duration / Termination: Until closing or termination
• Reason: Secure approvals and potential financing commitments

Agreement 3: Archimedes and Forge Nano Holders Sign Lock-Up to Support Business Combination

• Agreement type: Lock-Up Agreement
• Counterparty: Certain Forge Nano stockholders
• Signed / Effective: Apr 20 2026 / Apr 20 2026
• Reason: Align key holders and limit share sales post-close

Original SEC Filing: Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II Co. [ ATII ] - 8-K - Apr. 20, 2026
Disclaimer
This is an AI-powered summary. It may contain inaccuracies. Consider verifying important information with the source. Please note this summary is solely based on documents filed with the SEC.

Source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/tradingview:baf8a369f0931:0-archimedes-tech-spac-partners-ii-to-merge-with-forge-nano-in-1-2-billion-stock-deal/

a new global balance of power is being forged in the waters of Hormuz

Cedars Hill Group — April 13, 2026 — War is unpredictable. Whenever a politician chooses to engage in a war, they take a great risk because the nature of politics is to make promises and deliver on them and war increases the chance of political failure. Therefore, the natural question to start with regarding the Iran War is why Trump chose to attack Iran? Trump’s own National Security Strategy, published late last year, stated the US would focus on the Western Hemisphere, and now, only a few months later we are engaged in another war in the Middle East. Trump likes to be unpredictable, but the NSS document was core to his reelection campaign. Therefore, we must look closely at the circumstances around Iran and US imperatives to understand why we acted in Iran and how events may unfold.

In 2021 Iran began enriching uranium and currently has a stockpile of approximately 440kg of 60% enriched uranium. That is near weapons grade uranium which is only several weeks away from becoming weapons grade uranium. Given Iran’s known capabilities they could have produced or have already produced 9-10 nuclear weapons. This represented a major escalation from JCPOA compliance and triggered the initial strikes on Fordow and Isfahan where Iran likely stored its stockpile. Those strikes likely entombed Iran’s stockpile, if intelligence was correct, but failed to decisively eliminate the risk of Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Why is the Iranian nuclear program such a big deal? According to Alexander Campbell, “It is an existential threat to the entire architecture underneath globalism.” Ok, well we know that Trump is not a globalist so why does the US care?

After WWII, the US emerged as the dominant global power, rebuilt its allies and enemies in Europe and Japan and then squared off against Communist USSR during the Cold War. After the breakup of the USSR, the US became the undisputed global power with the only other nuclear powers being Russia, United Kingdom, France, and China. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction governed peaceful relations between the nuclear powers leaving non-nuclear powers in need of security assurances. Countries not aligned with Western globalism like Russia and China began supporting the development of nuclear programs in other non-aligned countries such as North Korea and Iran to shift the balance of power. North Korea became a nuclear power in 2006, and post-revolution Iran revived the Western-backed civilian nuclear program under the authority of the Supreme Leader with the goal of achieving highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium for use in nuclear weapons.

Under the Western globalist system, the tradeoff was straightforward: the US would police the oceans keeping trading routes open and there would be no need for more nukes or fighting. Treaties like the NPT were enacted and an unprecedented period of economic prosperity was ushered in by globalization. All the while Russia worked to undermine the Europeans with energy exports while China worked to undermine the US with cheap manufacturing exports which also served to hollow out America’s manufacturing base. Russian and Chinese tactics were designed to degrade and undermine the very heart and soul of Western globalism.

After decades of spilling American blood on distant shores in what ended up being endless, ideological wars and emptying its treasury, the US began to grow tired of this arrangement and Trump campaigned on it, winning a second term as President. Not only was the US growing tired of endless, ideological wars but it was starting to see Russia and China’s strategy paying off. Ray Dalio says that we are in a new World War as evidenced by the growing number of conflicts around the world: Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Gaza-Lebanon, Yemen-Saudi Arabia-Sudan-UAE, US-Israel-GCC-Iran. Trump has repeatedly pressed US allies, especially the Europeans, to increase defense spending and start taking responsibility for their interests abroad. The US cannot carry the weight of policing global trade routes and managing regional balances of power alone. Dalio has also argued that the US losing the battle for the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a flight from US assets and an eventual end to the US hegemony.

This is the reason why the US cannot allow Iran to become a nuclear power. It would further undermine the already overextended US-maintained global balance of power. Realistically, it may not result in immediate decline, but it would greatly undermine US power and further strengthen our adversaries at the same time that our old alliance structures are failing. George Friedman has declared that NATO is at risk and may be failing, and while the US is putting pressure on NATO it cannot allow that alliance to fail and for Iran to become a nuclear power at the same time. The US needs it’s allies more than ever but not the post-Cold War alliance structures like NATO.

Trump has chosen to preempt the decline of US dominance by focusing on the Western hemisphere, but has he made a mistake in Iran? Has he revealed a US vulnerability like Russia did in Ukraine? Critics of the war point out this is a war of choice which is true but also reduces the risk of the decline that Dalio has warned about. The US is overextended but not yet at a critical point; committing ground troops will further overextend us and increase the odds of the fall of the US hegemony. What Dalio’s pattern matching misses is that the US is not as economically dependent on the Strait as Great Britain was on Suez and the fight is not only about access to that strategic chokepoint.

The reopening of the Strait is both a ceasefire condition and Iran’s primary bargaining chip. Will control of the Strait be taken away from Iran and which countries are willing to the spend blood and money to do it? France has shown its hand by aligning with Russia, China, and the IRGC to oppose a UN Security council vote allowing defensive force to unblock the Strait. The US position has been that the countries that need it the most should be the ones bear the cost of taking control from Iran. The US is less interested in controlling the Strait but also can’t allow Iran to control it and have a nuclear program. A weakened US can no longer provide economic and security guarantees for Europe, but the Europeans are reluctant to take on the responsibility and Iran sees this as an opening.

The splits in the post-Cold War power alliances have been laid bare for the world to see. It is not just Trump’s obnoxiousness; it is also the European reluctance to stop being free loaders. But Iran is deeply divided as well. The IRGC is strongly opposed to negotiations with the West and continues to cling to power which presents a significant threat to any other elements within Iran to exercise control and comply with any ceasefire or peace agreement. The IRGC cares only about regime survival and may have been wounded enough to be threatened but not enough to be defeated, which could be one of the worst possible outcomes because it would necessitate their complete defeat which can only be achieved with ground troops or an internal uprising.

The US can cede control of the Strait if Iran gives up their nukes, but this arrangement would depend heavily on internal compliance and with the IRGC still exercising power it makes it very difficult to trust any such agreement. The IRGC stance prior to this weekend’s talks made achieving anything highly unlikely and Trump has now responded by imposing a blockade on Iran. This is the natural escalation against the weakened IRGC who can only respond with asymmetric tactics such as swarm attacks, harassment, drone strikes, and mines. The US has overwhelming conventional superiority and has already degraded Iran’s navy (~150 ships sunk) and many shore-based assets. Military analysts have historically estimated that the Strait could be reopened but it could take months depending on Iran’s tactics and capacity for interdiction. The US strategy now becomes one of containment and isolation to essentially “starve-out” the weakened IRGC and that extends the timeline of this conflict considerably.

The blockade is also a move against the allies who have been cutting side-deals with Iran and it puts China in a very difficult position. China consumes 80-90% of Iran’s oil and only has reserves to last it 90-120 days, which is likely why China has been keen to keep the Trump-Xi summit on the calendar. The US strategy seeks to unite its allies against the IRGC and bring about a swift end to the war.

The IRGC has limited conventional options and therefore seeks to prolong the conflict and turn US voters and allies against it. However, the blockade signals a willingness to go the long haul and escalate the conflict to global isolation which neutralizes the IRGC strategy of enforcing an ideological tollway on the Strait. The US strategy is constrained by the actions of its allies, the mid-terms, the financial markets, and the economy which is increasingly likely to experience a recession (Trump gets his rate cuts!). The IRGC strategy is constrained by its ability to survive, but they have far more to lose and a cornered adversary is the most dangerous kind. Both the US and Iran are vying for the rest of the world to tip the scales in their favor.

“The board is set; the pieces are moving. We come to it at last, the great battle of our time”
- Gandalf

Source: https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/chg-issue-222-the-great-battle-of

By Zach Scheel, CEO & Co-Founder

Rhumbix — March 24, 2026 — Today, I’m thrilled to share some exciting news: Autodesk has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Rhumbix.

While we are limited in what details we can disclose today and completion is subject to customary closing conditions that need to be satisfied, rest assured our respective teams are working hard to finalize and close this exciting transaction. Until then, we will continue to operate as separate companies.

Our Journey
Today’s announcement is the result of more than a decade of work by an incredible team and the trust of customers who believed in our vision from the start.

My co-founder, Drew DeWalt, and I both experienced the difficulty of managing large construction projects with inaccurate and latent data. Thirteen years ago, I was working on a copper concentrator project at the world’s largest copper mine, and our primary source of data came from 1,000+ timecards, handwritten in Chilean Spanish and submitted daily on pieces of paper. The inefficiency was staggering, and the lack of actionable data was holding everyone back. We knew there had to be a better way.

We embarked on a mission to continually improve the way the world is designed and built by empowering the construction workforce with technology that delivers value to Workers First. That mission has guided every product and feature we’ve built, every hire we’ve made, and every customer relationship we’ve earned.

Along the way, we’ve been fortunate to partner with some of the most forward-thinking contractors in the business. You pushed us to build something better, and I’m proud of what we’ve accomplished together.

Why Autodesk
Autodesk has been a close partner of ours for some time. We share a deep alignment on where the construction industry is headed and what it takes to get there: solutions that improve project outcomes, streamline processes, and empower teams in the field–particularly specialty contractors–to work more efficiently, building on Autodesk’s strong foundation with general contractors.

Should the proposed acquisition close as anticipated, joining Autodesk would give us the ability to do what we’ve always done, but at a scale we couldn’t achieve on our own. We intend on exploring opportunities to connect Rhumbix’s resource management capabilities more tightly with Autodesk’s construction platform, including workflows across cost management, scheduling, estimating, and planning, while further strengthening support for the field and self-perform contractors. This would enable more complete field-to-finance visibility so that project stakeholders could make better decisions with real-time data from the field.

What this means for our customers
For now, it’s business as usual. We don’t anticipate any immediate changes to Rhumbix’s products, service offerings, or customer support.

Should the proposed acquisition close, our team expects to join Autodesk, and the people you work with today would continue playing a critical role in what comes next. In the near term, our focus remains the same: supporting our customers with the same team and commitment you rely on today. Over time, we understand that Autodesk intends to explore deeper integration between Rhumbix and its construction workflows, driving increased value while maintaining the stability of what’s already working today. We’re grateful for the trust you’ve placed in Rhumbix and will keep you informed as plans evolve.

Thank you.
To our team: many of you have been on this journey for five or more years. Your expertise and dedication built something of real impact and value. I couldn’t be more grateful.

To our customers and partners: thank you for your trust. This potential next chapter is about scaling our mission to ultimately deliver even more value to you.

To our board and investors: thank you for believing in what we were building before the rest of the industry caught up. Your support made this moment possible.

We’re committed to maintaining an open line of communication with our customers, providing updates as more information can be shared. In the meantime, if you have questions, please reach out to your account representative or contact us at support@rhumbix.com.

As we move towards the anticipated close of this transaction – and the expected end of my tenure as the CEO of Rhumbix – I look forward to potentially joining Autodesk and could not be more excited about the potential impact of scaling the Rhumbix platform globally as part of Autodesk Forma!

Zach Scheel

CEO & Co-Founder, Rhumbix

Source: ​https://www.rhumbix.com/blog/a-new-chapter-autodesk-has-signed-a-definitive-agreement-to-acquire-rhumbix

Citybiz — April 1, 2026 — Schmidt Industrial Services LLC, a leading provider of engineered metal solutions, pressure vessels and precision machining services, today announced the acquisition of Metal & Cable Corp, a recognized leader in magnetic mounting equipment and specialty metal sourcing. This strategic acquisition strengthens Schmidt Industrial’s position across telecommunications, energy, and power markets while further diversifying its capabilities in metal fabrication and precision machining.

Metal & Cable Corp is internationally known for its Magnemount® systems, widely regarded as the most reliable and durable magnetic mounting solutions in the telecommunications industry. These systems are trusted by professionals worldwide for their performance in demanding environments, making them a cornerstone product line within the sector.

With this acquisition, Schmidt Industrial will continue to manufacture and support the Magnemount® product line, ensuring customers experience the same high standards of quality, durability, and reliability that have defined Metal & Cable Corp’s reputation for decades.

In addition to its telecommunications expertise, Metal & Cable Corp has built a strong legacy in sourcing specialty metal products for customers across the energy and power segments. Schmidt Industrial plans to build upon this foundation, leveraging its expanded scale and engineering capabilities to deliver enhanced value and responsiveness to customers operating in critical infrastructure industries.

“This acquisition represents a significant step forward in our growth strategy,” said CEO Brian Santana. “Metal & Cable Corp brings a highly respected product portfolio and deep expertise in specialty metals that aligns perfectly with our mission. The Magnemount® systems are best-in-class, and we are committed to preserving and advancing that legacy while expanding our reach into new markets.”

President Dave Tennett added, “What makes this transaction especially compelling is the synergy between our organizations. Schmidt Industrial has always differentiated itself through hands-on engineering support, quality-driven manufacturing, and a relentless focus on customer service. By integrating Metal & Cable Corp’s capabilities, we are enhancing our ability to advise customers with practical, engineered solutions while continuing to deliver the exceptional quality they expect.” Metal & Cable Corp founder, David Klein, will transition with the company and serve as an advisor to Schmidt Industrial.

Schmidt Industrial’s value-added approach centers on partnering with customers through every stage of the product lifecycle—from design consultation and material selection to fabrication and final delivery. The addition of Metal & Cable Corp strengthens this model, enabling the company to provide even more comprehensive solutions tailored to complex industrial applications.

The combined organization will continue to operate with a strong emphasis on service, quality, and engineering excellence, ensuring a seamless transition for existing customers while unlocking new opportunities for innovation and growth.

For more information, visit www.wasinc.com or www.metal-cable.com.

About Schmidt Industrial Services LLC
Schmidt Industrial Services LLC is a Pennsylvania-based provider of metal fabrication, precision machining, and engineered industrial solutions. The company is committed to delivering high-quality products and expert engineering support to customers across a diverse range of industries.

About Metal & Cable Corp
Metal & Cable Corp is a manufacturer of magnetic mounting systems and a trusted supplier of specialty metal products, serving telecommunications, energy, and power markets with a reputation for reliability and durability.

Source: ​https://www.citybiz.co/article/826580/schmidt-industrial-services-acquires-metal-cable-corp/

Combines the largest independent creator network with a top Snapchat publisher to unify long-form and short-form creator media at global scale.
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LOS ANGELES, March 31, 2026 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ --  Bent Pixels, the world's largest gaming and entertainment network per Comscore, today announced the acquisition of Sunny State Agency (SSA), a top global Snapchat publisher, in a transaction valued at over $23 million. The deal brings together scaled short-form distribution and enterprise ad sales to create one of the most comprehensive cross-platform creator media platforms globally.

Combined Platform Highlights:

• Strong profitability
• 850+ creators globally
• Top 5 Snapchat publisher
• 72B views per year
• Cross-platform reach across YouTube, Snapchat, Facebook, and Instagram

Mike Pusateri, Founder & CEO of Bent Pixels: "SSA has built real scale in short-form distribution, particularly on Snapchat. We've built the sales engine, data infrastructure, and brand relationships to monetize that scale. Bringing those together is the opportunity."

Founded in 2009, Bent Pixels has built a scaled creator media business that pairs enterprise ad sales with proprietary data and infrastructure to help creators grow revenue and enable brands to accurately target hard-to-reach audiences. The company manages over 800 leading creators, including Topper Guild, Matthew Beem, Vanoss Gaming, Ninja, and Law&Crime Network. Its platform includes tools like Pixel Fusion, Creator & Brand Portal, and a purpose-built Billing Portal designed for creator media.

Sunny State Agency is a leading short-form content distributor and monetization partner, ranking among the top global publishers on Snapchat. The company drives distribution across Snapchat, Facebook, TikTok, and MSN, supporting creators such as Steve-O, Andrew Huberman, NikkieTutorials, and WhistlinDiesel. With more than 80 Snapchat Shows, SSA is a key partner to Snap.

The acquisition brings together complementary strengths:

Bent Pixels: Enterprise creator media, direct brand sales, and data infrastructure.

SSA: Scaled short-form distribution and monetization, led by Snapchat.

Together, the combined company is positioned to lead creator media across both long-form and short-form platforms.

All SSA employees will join Bent Pixels. SSA Founder and CEO Shady Dnaf will join the Bent Pixels Board of Directors and serve as President of Bent Pixels Europe, leading growth across Europe and global expansion initiatives.

"This acquisition marks a major milestone in Bent Pixels' global growth strategy," said Mike Pusateri, Founder & CEO of Bent Pixels. "SSA has built real scale in short-form distribution, particularly on Snapchat. We've built the sales engine, data infrastructure, and brand relationships to monetize that scale. Bringing those together is the opportunity. This positions us to lead creator media across platforms, and we're excited about what comes next."

"Joining forces with Bent Pixels is an exciting next chapter for Sunny State," said Shady Dnaf, Founder & CEO of Sunny State Agency. "We've always focused on helping creators maximize their reach and revenue across emerging platforms. With Bent Pixels' scale, infrastructure, and brand partnerships, we can accelerate that mission and bring even more opportunities to our creators and team."
The acquisition expands Bent Pixels' global footprint, adding strength in Europe and continuing growth across North America and Asia. It also accelerates the company's ability to sell creator media directly across platforms, including Snapchat, where enterprise demand is growing, and supply remains fragmented.

Advisors
Sunny State Agency was advised by James Creech and Sebastian Wulff of Quartermast Advisors. Bent Pixels was advised by Daniel Langston of Market Street Capital and Ari Raskas of Pickwick Capital Partners. Transaction financing was provided by MEP Capital.

About Pickwick Capital
Pickwick Capital Partners, LLC is an independent, middle-market investment banking firm providing strategic merger and acquisition and special situations advisory services, direct and fund capital placement, and foreign broker-dealer chaperone services. Pickwick Capital is headquartered in White Plains, NY, with over 100 associated persons across the US and internationally.

About Sunny State Agency
Sunny State Agency is a leading global content publisher and syndication company specializing in short-form distribution across Snapchat, TikTok, Facebook, and other platforms. The company produces original programming and drives over 3 billion monthly views across its network.

About Bent Pixels
Bent Pixels is a global creator media company founded in 2009. The company partners with over 800 leading creators to grow their revenue through channel optimization, content strategy, syndication, and brand partnerships. Using proprietary data and direct platform access, Bent Pixels connects Fortune 500 brands with high-value, hard-to-reach audiences at scale.

Media Contact
info@bentpixels.com

Media Contact
Mike Pusateri, Bent Pixels, Inc., 1 (702) 844-2051, info@bentpixels.com, www.bentpixels.com

Twitter, LinkedIn

SOURCE: https://www.prweb.com/releases/bent-pixels-acquires-sunny-state-agency-in-23m-deal-to-expand-creator-media-across-snapchat-and-short-form-video-302728328.html

In the charts above we took the volatility experienced during the first ten days of the war and used it to normalize the moves experienced across later days in terms of number of standard deviations. This helps us to identify the new patterns the market is settling into under this heightened geopolitical risk environment, and it will also help to identify when the market starts moving away from that regime and pricing in an end to the war.

We have referred to this market phenomenon in the past as the “macro blob” which is a crude name for very real behavior of market participants. Quants might call this the “crowding effect” but in layman terms it just reflects the emotional reaction to a surprise: initial fear which eventually shifts to greed. The cyclical nature of human behavior creates market cycles from the long ones to the very short ones like what we are experiencing today. It is basic supply and demand analysis, initially very few were positioned for war, now everyone is and investors are even starting to over position for it. If you want to know how the market will react to an end to the war just look at how it is pricing the war today.

The moves in oil and the dollar have lessened while the moves in stocks have increased as the initial expectations for a short timeline are starting to come out of the market. Notably, foreign stocks risk-off beta has decreased, and their risk-on beta is higher than domestic stocks as Iran’s treatment of different countries passing through the Strait of Hormuz has evolved into a toll-based system where access is granted based on political alignment. This sort of positive convexity shows that investors are reevaluating their initial assumptions on the impact of the war on domestic and foreign stocks. The knee jerk reaction was to sell the stuff that is physically closest to the war and now it is evolving as we learn more about the intermediate and longer-term impacts.

Bigger picture the market is starting to settle into a longer timeline for this war despite the recent hints from the US of a ceasefire. The major news outlets tend to heavily discount what the Trump Administration says. This treatment is both well-earned and also short-sighted. As we have pointed out previously, Trump is an agent of chaos and he uses chaos to keep his opponents on their back foot. We have all gotten used to a standard way of doing things with past administrations, and this administration seems to have made it policy not to do anything in the standard way.
​
This uncertainty benefits the administration, but it creates a challenge for the market in pricing risk. All the models based on the standard ways of doing things must be thrown out. However, what we are seeing is that the market is simply discounting everything the administration says.

Trump is a strange person and the press conference last week where he spoke about a gift from Iran was strange but also might be more than a random Trump ramble if it was truly a sign from an element within Iran that is able to exercise power and control independently of the IRGC. The IRGC represents the most extreme ideological elements within Iran, and they will never negotiate with the US or Israel whom they have sworn to wipe off the face of the earth. Therefore, we should not be surprised by the IRGC’s continued denials of talks and continued missile strikes. But we should pay close attention to any deviation from the IRGC’s normal rhetoric coming out of Iran and for any signs of another “MORE REASONABLE, REGIME” that is able to exercise power and control within Iran.
This weekend the Houthis entered the conflict by conducting missile and drone attacks on Southern Israel. This is seemingly an escalation of the conflict and opens another front in the war, but the Houthis decision to not attack international shipping lanes, something they have done frequently in the past, may suggest they are pursuing a relatively cautious approach toward their cooperation with the IRGC. This may indicate the IRGC appears weak to the Houthis, and they don’t want to risk an escalation with Israel and the US when their primary benefactor is severely weakened.
Additionally, the Supreme Leader’s Telegram channel published a statement about Iran’s “resistance economy” that is disconnected from the reality on the ground in Iran. This may reflect an effort to portray the Supreme Leader as an active leader amidst reports that he is seriously wounded.
Despite what they say on the surface and how Western media interprets this news; these are not the actions of a strong and united Iranian regime. It is clear there is a power struggle taking place in Iran which may result in the regime change the US is hoping for, but that could come with a significant escalation of the conflict before it ends. There are reports of growing discord between the Artesh and the IRGC and we can only hope that the anti-regime elements within Iran are the ones taking control of the Artesh, consolidating power, and negotiating with the US. The only thing we can be certain of is that you can’t trust anything anyone says in times of war.

Cedars Hill Group is a boutique investment bank built by investors. We invite you to explore our Knowledge Base to learn more about how you can run your business or portfolio like the best.
At CHG, we connect clients and experts to drive innovation and solve complex problems in today’s fast-paced and rapidly changing financial markets. Get in touch to learn how we can help you navigate your financial future.

​Source: ​https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/chg-issue-221-regime-change

John B. Levy & Company (JBLco) is delighted to announce the closing of a $13,300,000 refinance for Kensington Place Apartments, a multifamily community located in Richmond, Virginia. The loan was provided through Freddie Mac's lending platform. 
 
This milestone achievement reflects JBLco’s continued commitment to providing innovative financial solutions for stabilized multifamily assets in strong, infill submarkets.
Kensington Place Apartments is a 106‑unit multifamily community located at 3503 Kensington Avenue in Richmond, Virginia, within the highly desirable Near West End area. The property benefits from its proximity to Carytown, major employment centers, and established residential neighborhoods. 
 
JBLco served as exclusive advisor on the transaction, structuring and arranging the refinancing to align the capital structure with the sponsor’s long‑term ownership strategy. This financing underscores continued lender confidence in well‑located, stabilized multifamily assets and highlights the strength of JBLco’s longstanding agency lending relationships.
 
“This refinancing highlights the durability of well‑located assets and the continued availability of agency capital for experienced ownership groups,” said Sandler D. Passman of John B. Levy & Company. “We are proud to have advised on this transaction and to continue supporting our client with long‑term, stable financing solutions.”
 
This transaction aligns with JBLco’s mission to empower real estate owners and developers with the necessary resources to navigate complex financial environments. The firm leverages its deep market knowledge and strategic partnerships to deliver thoughtful and effective capital solutions.
 
About John B. Levy & Company
John B. Levy & Company is a premier real estate investment banking firm that provides debt and equity placement services for commercial real estate transactions nationwide. With a focus on innovation and strategic partnerships, JBLco has a proven track record of successfully navigating the complexities of the real estate finance landscape. Since 1995, we’ve been adept at navigating complex financial landscapes and excel in structuring creative capital solutions. In light of recent market volatility and its impact on global real estate capital needs, we’ve continued to provide our expertise and support to ensure successful deal completions. Our latest transaction exemplifies our commitment to delivering optimal outcomes for our clients.

Source: https://www.jblevyco.com/​

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Richmond, VA — February 2026

The Giliberto Levy Commercial Mortgage Performance Index (G L 1) finished 2025 with clear forward momentum, posting a 1.56% total return in the fourth quarter and 8.71% for the full year—its strongest annual performance since before the pandemic and a notable inflection point for the commercial mortgage market.

Beneath the headline returns, G L 1 captured a market in transition, marked by stabilizing fundamentals, improving credit quality, and tightening spreads across property sectors.

Key Signals from the Fourth Quarter
• Broad-based positive returns across all major property types, with office and multifamily showing renewed resilience
• Income remained the dominant source of return, underscoring the durability of commercial mortgages in a higher rate environment
• Spread compression across sectors reflected improving liquidity conditions and rising investor confidence
• Credit performance continued to strengthen, with elevated risk loan exposure declining for a full year—validating disciplined underwriting
• Commercial mortgages outperformed competing fixed income alternatives, including investment grade corporate bonds, CMBS, and U.S. Treasuries, reinforcing their appeal as income-oriented allocations

As markets enter 2026, investors are navigating rate sensitivity, selective capital deployment, and heightened scrutiny of credit risk. In this environment, G L 1 provides timely, data-driven insight into how commercial mortgages are actually performing—not simply how they are perceived.

For investors, asset managers, and allocators seeking transparent benchmarks, sector-level clarity, and early signals on risk and return, G L 1 offers a differentiated lens into a market that is quietly re-establishing its role within diversified portfolios.

Why G L 1
• See how commercial mortgages are really performing
• Track income, credit, and spreads in a single benchmark
• Identify risk and opportunity earlier
• Position portfolios with confidence

Subscribe to G L 1 to stay ahead of shifting fundamentals, monitor credit trends in real time, and better position portfolios as the commercial mortgage cycle evolves. For subscription details or to discuss how G-L 1 can support your investment process, please reach out.

About the Giliberto Levy Indexes
The G L Commercial Mortgage Performance Index (G L 1) tracks investment results for fixed-rate senior mortgages originated by life insurance companies, GSEs, pension funds, and investment managers. G L 1 has been published continuously since 1993, with a return inception date of January 1, 1972.

The G-L High Yield Real Estate Debt Index (G-L 2) measures performance for mezzanine loans, leveraged whole loans, and B notes. G-L 2 production began in 2018, with a return inception date of January 1, 2010.

For more information or to subscribe, please visit www.jblevyco.com or contact:
John Levy (804) 500 9025 | jlevy@jblevyco.com
Julia Grant (804) 500 9026 | jgrant@jblevyco.com​

John B. Levy & Company — February 24, 2026 — John B. Levy & Company (JBLCO) is pleased to announce the successful closing of two new affordable housing communities located at 1400 Hull Street Road and 1500 Hull Street Road in Richmond, Virginia.
 
The two properties are multifamily apartment communities situated along the Hull Street Road corridor, an area that continues to benefit from strong rental demand and ongoing investment activity.
 
JBLCO served as advisor on both transactions and provided consultation and application submission services in connection with the LIHTC program administered by Virginia Housing.
 
“The closing of these two developments is a direct result of strong execution by the sponsor team working closely with JBLCO, which provided a deep understanding of both the LIHTC Program and Virginia Housing policies and processes,” said Dale Wittie of John B. Levy & Company. “Completing the Virginia Housing applications for both properties required close coordination and attention to detail, and we are pleased to assist in delivering new deeply affordable housing units to the local market.”
 
These transactions align with JBLCO’s mission to empower real estate owners and developers with the necessary resources to navigate complex financial environments. The firm continues to leverage its experience across multifamily and affordable housing finance to deliver thoughtful and effective capital solutions.
 
About John B. Levy & Company
John B. Levy & Company is a premier real estate investment banking firm providing debt and equity placement services for commercial real estate transactions nationwide. With a focus on innovation, strategic partnerships, and tailored capital solutions, the firm has a proven track record of successfully navigating complex real estate finance environments.
 
Want to learn more about this project or our work in affordable housing and multifamily finance?
Contact Dale Wittie at 
dwittie@jblevyco.com or 804-500-9034

John B. Levy & Company — February 19, 2026 — John B. Levy & Company (JBL&Co.) is pleased to announce the successful closing of a $25,350,000 first mortgage refinance for The Lowell, a luxury condominium project located in McLean, Virginia. 
 
The loan was secured by residential condominium collateral within The Lowell, a recently constructed, 44‑unit luxury condominium project situated in a prime McLean location, offering exceptional access to Washington, D.C. and surrounding employment centers. The refinancing enabled the sponsor to retire both the senior and mezzanine construction debt while lowering the overall cost of capital. JBL&Co. served as exclusive advisor to the borrower, structuring and arranging the financing to meet the sponsor’s objectives.
 
“This transaction highlights the depth of our lender relationships and our continued focus on delivering thoughtful capital solutions for our clients,” said Sandler Passman, Principal of John B. Levy & Company. “Despite ongoing market volatility, opportunities remain for strong assets in premier locations.”
 
The successful closing further highlights JBL&Co.’s expertise in structuring and placing debt for complex residential projects, as well as its commitment to guiding clients through evolving capital markets.

About John B. Levy & Company
John B. Levy & Company is a premier real estate investment banking firm providing debt and equity placement services for commercial real estate transactions nationwide. With a focus on innovation, strategic partnerships, and tailored capital solutions, the firm has a proven track record of successfully navigating complex real estate finance environments.

Want to learn more about this project or our investment strategy?
Contact Sandler Passman at 
spassman@jblevyco.com or 804-500-9033​

Source: ​https://www.jblevyco.com/

John B. Levy & Company — January 19, 2026 — The G-L 2 has released its Third Quarter Review, highlighting a surge in loan‑tracking activity and projecting a positive finish to the year. Despite challenges in select real estate sectors, overall indicators point to a high‑growth environment for the index.

Rapid Growth
The volume of loans tracked by the G‑L 2 is on an “explosive track.” Driven by the addition of several large new participants, loan volume is expected to increase 25% between now and year-end. Total loans tracked are projected to exceed $110 billion by the close of Q4‑2025.

Improving Credit Quality
Credit quality also strengthened this quarter:
Credit event frequency improved from 3.44% to 3.04%.

Sector Spotlight: Office vs. Multi‑Family
The review underscores a widening performance gap between major real estate sectors:
Office Loans: Continue to face significant challenges, posting a high incidence rate of 7.73%.
Multi‑Family Loans: Remain highly resilient with a notably low non‑performing rate of 1.36%.

Strong Returns for Investors
Investment performance remains robust:
Average return across all investments: 1.83%
Leveraged total loans: Outperformed with a return of 3.19%

About the Giliberto‑Levy Indexes
The G-L Commercial Mortgage Performance Index (G‑L 1) tracks investment results for fixed‑rate senior mortgages originated by life insurance companies, GSEs, pension funds, and investment managers. G‑L 1 has been published continuously since 1993, with a return inception date of January 1, 1972.

The G‑L High‑Yield Real Estate Debt Index (G‑L 2) measures performance for mezzanine loans, leveraged whole loans, and B‑notes. G‑L 2 production began in 2018, with a return inception date of January 1, 2010.

Contact
For more information or to subscribe, please visit www.jblevyco.com or contact:
John Levy – (804) 500‑9025 | jlevy@jblevyco.com
Julia Grant – (804) 500‑9026 | jgrant@jblevyco.com

Source: ​www.jblevyco.com

Cedars Hill Group — November 11, 2025 — The great thing about demographics is they are slow moving and relatively straightforward in their cause-effect relationships. Over the long-term we know that economic growth = population growth + productivity growth. In the short term we may experience divergences from the underlying trend that are ultimately mean reverting. We can have confidence in the mean reverting nature because the underlying facts are immutable: the economy can only grow because there are more people doing things or because the things they are doing are more productive. Natural constraints, such as population growth = births - deaths + net migration, provide a foundation for alpha generation because when the economy continues to grow at a healthy rate despite lower population growth, we know it must be due to productivity growth. From that, we can investigate the causes of lower population and higher productivity growth so that we can have a better understanding of their strength and durability.

The baby boomers represent a large demographic force due to the size of their cohort and as they came of age and have now started moving into retirement their activities have had large impacts on our economy, politics, and society; just to name a few.

Aging countries have fewer prime age (ages 25-54) workers which leads to lower labor force participation. All else being equal, lower labor force participation means lower economic growth because there are fewer workers producing and consuming goods and services. Additionally, a higher share of older people acts as a drag on economic growth as they divert economic resources towards healthcare and away from human capital development.

​Beginning around 1990, the US’s age dependency ratio line started moving higher and has recently increased upside velocity. Given that increase we should expect to see lower labor force participation and lower productivity.

All else being equal, the aging of America since 1990 should have caused productivity to decline and inflation to rise; but it did not. We are well aware of the impact of technology, and most recently AI’s impact on productivity, but what other forces could be at work? We must ask this because we have experienced a change in inflation recently while productivity growth remains healthy with prospects to accelerate, so what else might be at work that has caused inflation to rise?

Demographics contributed to the global glut of capital in the 1990s and 2000s mainly through 1) aging populations in advanced economies that increased saving rates, and 2) rapid income growth with high saving rates in emerging markets like China and India. In the late 20th century, the combination of demographic aging, which leads to asset accumulation during working years, and financial globalization created large capital flows from high-saving countries to low-saving advanced economies such as the US. This capital surplus pushed down global real interest rates and contributed to the “global saving glut.”

​The fact that lower interest rates did not result in higher inflation confounded economists in the 2000s and 2010s. The oversupply of capital increased financial asset prices but did not increase prices for goods and services because the savings were used to build excess capacity. Low interest rates enabled productive capacity to expand, and they also enabled governments to borrow more to stimulate their economies. This led to an increase in debt and a decline in the productivity of that debt, especially government debt.

The surge in worker productivity combined with abundant global savings allowed policymakers to meet every economic downturn or financial crisis with a surge in debt-financed spending. Increasing debt burdens resulted in a higher frequency of financial crises which created a self-reinforcing loop of debt accumulation shifting towards public sector balance sheets. While doing something in a crisis was politically expedient, economically all it was doing was pulling future spending forward and this is why we have seen such a precipitous drop in what Hoisington calls the Marginal Revenue Product of Debt (MRPD). Flooding the market with dollars and those dollars typically being recycled back into investment assets drove asset prices higher and put pressure on the velocity of money.

Declining velocity of money in the economy was an important factor that contributed to the disconnect between interest rates and inflation. Although recently velocity has turned higher contributing to the recent rise in inflation. The velocity of money is influenced by things like MRPD, demographic trends, credit growth, consumer attitudes and confidence, employment growth, and so on. Up until recently the declining MRPD and aging demographics have acted as a strong anchor on velocity, but the recent turn higher suggests that the balance of forces weighing on velocity is shifting.

​The aging baby boomer generation in the US and other advanced economies is now entering retirement and increasingly selling equities or shifting toward safer assets to fund consumption, potentially leading to a decline in capital accumulation, and financial asset values and an increase in consumer goods and services. Previously, baby boomers were spending their marginal dollars on financial assets but now that is not necessarily the case. We have heard anecdotes of parents supporting their kids well into adulthood. This is an example of how demographic, financial, technological, and economic trends intersect with the current social issues around depression, anxiety, teen suicide, and so on which can feed back into velocity through other channels. It is vital to remember that financial assets have massively outperformed physical assets since the 1990s with the impact stretching beyond the economy and financial markets into society via increasing inequality. It is foolish to formulate any view on the economy without taking this chart and its manifold effects into consideration.

At the same time, declining birth rates due to social attitudes towards marriage and the economic challenges of raising a family reduce the future working-age population, which reduces the potential for savings and investment demand in the future. As we have seen, it was the abundance of resources and capital that were the predominant forces underlying the secular disinflationary trend. While technology has a major impact primarily through increased productivity the tradeoffs of those technologies are now being felt throughout society. While inflation is a monetary phenomenon, as we have seen in other countries that have experienced prolonged deflation, like Japan, it is also a psychological phenomenon. Consumer attitudes towards spending today are heavily influenced by their perception of the availability of the products, their want and need for them, and their perception of their ability to afford them. Perhaps the biggest force underlying inflationary dynamics today is the shift in mindset from one of abundance during the 1990s and 2000s to a scarcity mindset today.

​For example, the rising cost of capital for AI capex is due to the scarcity of capital today. This has been disguised by the private markets where most of this capex is being financed but not entirely. Last week we saw ORCL CDS spreads blow out on concerns related to their heavy AI capex spending.

One of the “solutions” to this scarcity of capital is allowing retirees to invest in private assets. While it is unlikely that this is the real motive behind the movement towards the democratization of private assets, it is an example of the invisible hand at work. There is a growing need for capital and as the baby boomers move deeper into retirement their large pool of capital is increasingly unavailable, and the market is trying to bring it back online.

​Everything is connected and if you pull on certain threads for long enough you will discover the cause-effect relationships that are worth spending time thinking about. They reveal the real forces quietly moving under the surface which are behind the outcomes we are experiencing.

Source: ​https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/chg-issue-206-fire

John B. Levy & Company — October 21, 2025 —​ The Giliberto-Levy High-Yield Real Estate Debt Index (G-L 2) posted a total return of -0.13% for the second quarter of 2025, marking its first negative quarterly result since the third quarter of 2015. This compares with a revised +1.00% total return for the first quarter.
 
“The second quarter brought a few surprises,” said John B. Levy, President of John B. Levy & Company and co-creator of the Giliberto-Levy indices. “While the move was relatively modest, it underscores the shifting dynamics within the high-yield commercial real-estate debt market.”
 
Q2 2025 Highlights

• Loan Values: Declined across several office and multifamily transactions.
• Credit Events: Increased slightly from 4.68% to 4.72% — a small but meaningful step in the wrong direction.
• Industrial Sector: Recorded the first credit event in the 15-year history of the G-L 2, ending a long streak of strong performance.

Industrial loans have historically been a bright spot within the high-yield space. However, this quarter’s event suggests the sector may no longer be entirely immune to broader market pressures.
 
Despite the softer quarter, the G-L 2 continued to grow in both depth and participation, with a strong influx of new institutional subscribers and data providers enhancing the index’s coverage and analytics.
 
About the Giliberto-Levy Indexes
The G-L Commercial Mortgage Performance Index, or G-L 1, tracks investment results for fixed-rate senior mortgages made by lenders such as life insurance companies, GSEs, pension funds, and investment managers and held on their balance sheets. G-L 1 has been produced continuously since 1993, with a return inception date of January 1, 1972.
 
The G-L High-yield Real Estate Debt Index, or G-L 2, measures performance for a variety of investments, such as mezzanine loans, leveraged whole-loan, and B-notes. G-L 2 production started in 2018. The return inception date is January 1, 2010.
 
To receive more information about the indexes, please contact Julia Grant (jgrant@jblevyco.com). 

Source: jblevyco.com​

​Cedars Hill Group — October 7, 2025 -- The tension between tradition and novelty is timeless. It causes pain and if we don’t learn from it, we ultimately become stuck in our ways and eventually outmoded.

The ability to learn from pain is central to all competitive activities and the paradox of greatness is that you must experience a lot of loss on the path to greatness. Another important insight into greatness is that it is nearly impossible to hold onto for any extended period; there will always be a new winner. Realizing greatness is not a destination is a prerequisite to be great because you cannot do what it takes if you think greatness is just around the corner. Think about running a marathon, you do what needs to be done to finish the race but no more. Greatness not only finishes the race but keeps going.

Society celebrates greatness but not the methods that enable it. New innovations are dismissed or met with outright resistance. If you have a new idea about religion or social intercourse you are likely to be run out of town, derided as a person bent on destruction, lacking morals, and a danger to society. When you find others invoking morals and religion as an argument against some new way of doing things you have struck a nerve.
Society is a weathervane and it’s a mistake to base your values and integrity on it. The minute you are certain of something your creativity dies, and you have lost your ability to think clearly. You must have confidence in your foundation to push off into the uncertainty of the world but the strength to realize when it’s time for a new foundation.

Beware of mistaking novelty with superiority. The tension between tradition and novelty is not about age, it’s about time; and as we know time is the confounding variable of life. We must be able to respect tradition because it is our foundation, but we must also be able to see that it may not be where we are going.

What is a practical way to navigate this tension and these paradoxes?

How do we know when to embrace the new or lean on tradition?

While these are good questions, they are the wrong ones to be asking. We need a causal understanding of why tradition has worked and when those fundamental linkages breakdown we must be able to recognize it and update our beliefs. This is what it means to think. Not just think about what you want to do this weekend, but to really engage your brain and live life. One of the greatest tragedies of life is how very few people do this consistently.

Thinking will reveal when the innovation takes root and when it fails. Many simply embrace something new because they are not happy with the status quo. This sort of change is usually transitory. When novelty reinforces itself and creates a positive feedback loop then you have something with legs. If you take the time to think about things you will find most ideas fail on their own premises.

For example, the Efficient Markets Hypothesis assumes that all available information is instantly reflected in prices, so no one can systematically outperform the market. However, if this were true no one would bother analyzing information or trading on mispricings — yet that activity is what makes markets efficient. Therefore, if the hypothesis was universally true it would cease to be true.

Let’s look at our inflation view under this framework. We believe that inflation has ended the secular trend lower and has begun a secular trend higher. Why? The disinflationary impulse from globalization, high debt levels & excess capacity, and the disinflationary impact of technological innovation are in the final innings or reversing.

1. Premise: Globalization is reversing

• COVID pandemic fundamentally changed the thinking around global supply chains
• US pulling support from post-WWII global institutions like NATO
• New US trade policy focusing on trade balance as a measure of fairness
• Supply shortages due to tariffs have resulted in price increases

2. Premise: The marginal impact of higher borrowing to increase productivity and capacity is diminishing

• COVID stimulus measures led to the largest inflationary impulse since the 1970s
• M2 velocity has increased by 23% since 2020
• Shortages of basic food items such as eggs have led to surging prices

3. Premise: The disinflationary impact of technological innovation is waning

• High electricity demand from datacenters increasing local electricity prices
• Surging demand for chips and the rare earth minerals required

These are the things that are signaling to us that the disinflationary forces of the past forty-years are diminishing and potentially reversing. We have seen confirmation in market prices recently, however there is potentially a time horizon mismatch as the market is expecting inflation now, while these forces are longer-wavelength forces and may play out over a longer time frame than the market pricing would suggest.

In the short term we may see disinflation or even deflation. Why? AI is a disinflationary force in the short-term, and the disinflationary forces from the last cycle have not fully reversed.

I met a company last week that was able to cut more than half their payroll this year by replacing workers with AI automation. This is a small and relatively unsophisticated company that was able to achieve this which means they are not the only ones doing it. In the 1990s and early 2000s we saw a huge increase in productivity and lower consumer prices as the internet accelerated the globalization of supply chains which led to intense competition for consumer goods and lower prices. That force lasted for quite a while so while AI will most certainly lead to a surge in productivity in the future the near-term impact may be disinflationary due to weaker job growth which we are seeing in real time. The impact of increased productivity from AI may also not translate 1:1 into lower prices in the future because of the larger impact on growth it will likely have relative to 1990s and 2000s experience; but this will take years to reveal itself.

We update our beliefs as these causal linkages reveal themselves as either broken or working. We also realize that these links operate on different wavelengths and that is primarily where market inconsistencies come from. Alpha comes from betting against the market when its pricing in a traditional causal link that has changed or betting with the market when you are in the early innings of that change. Timeframe mismatches happen frequently because of the emotional response to change. Investors are frequently slow to adapt and once they do, they tend to over-explode. There is also institutional bureaucracy which slows the adoption of change. Real money investors can move markets because they manage huge portfolios, but are usually the last to adopt, whereas fast money adopts quickly but doesn’t have as much firepower.

When tradition devolves into empty platitudes you tend to find that the causal linkages that formed the tradition are breaking down. Often market prices are slow to confirm this which leads to high dissonance, which is what we are seeing broadly in society and the markets today. When dissonance is high the stakes are raised and the potential for alpha is increased. It is important to anchor your views in causal linkages, but it is even more important to recognize when those linkages break down, and not just temporarily. The nature of markets is that price will always challenge your views, but price is the highest frequency variable and easily misleads. Alex Campbell laid out a fantastic framework for navigating this in his most recent post:

Add to position (trust your model) when:
✓ Linkages confirming sequentially (A→B→C happening in order)
✓ High dissonance (large gap between fundamentals and price)
✓ Time horizon mismatch (market pricing different timeframe than your thesis)
✓ Position isolated (not part of broader “everything going wrong”)

Cut position (trust the market) when:
✗ Linkages breaking (A→B not happening as predicted)
✗ Low dissonance (price and fundamentals agree you’re wrong)
✗ Correlation clustering (all your positions moving against you)
✗ Unknown unknowns (things happening you can’t explain)
Conviction Through Dissonance
​
There is a principle that underlies this framework which applies to everything in life and the markets. It is to have a strong foundation and integrity based on truth but also realize that our beliefs can turn into prisons for ourselves and others if we don’t embrace the inevitable dissonance that results when life throws you a curveball. When we allow traditions to divide us, we devalue one of the greatest gifts we possess which is the unity in our suffering (dissonance).

Source: ​https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/chg-issue-202-tradition-vs-novelty

​Off-Market Acquisition of a 130,000 SF Flex Portfolio in Owings Mills, MD

Deal Highlights
We're excited to announce the successful closing of a $19 million capital stack for the acquisition of a 130,000 square-foot flex portfolio in Owings Mills, MD. This strategic transaction underscores our commitment to identifying and capitalizing on high-potential commercial real estate opportunities.

• Property: 130,000 SF Flex Portfolio in Owings Mills, MD
• Occupancy: 95% occupied with 4 years WALT & valuable mark-to-market opportunities upon lease expiration
• Tenant Mix: Varied tenant mix, including warehouse, school, daycare, retail tenants; 45+% office finish

Capital Stack Breakdown
This successful deal was made possible through a diverse capital structure, bringing together a powerful mix of debt and equity partners.

• Debt: $13 million (70%) loan from a top-tier insurance company, fixed at a competitive 5.90% for a 7-year term.
• Equity: $6 million (30%) was provided by an institutional joint venture (JV) partner, supplying 85% of the equity. We are proud to have invested shoulder-to-shoulder with the Sponsor.

Source: ​https://www.jblevyco.com/

​Cedars Hill Group — September 16, 2025 — The markets are worried about inflation and weaker growth at the same time which is creating schizophrenic pricing in the yield curve. Investors expect that the Fed will be forced to lower rates against their will while tariffs keep upward pressure on inflation, and the AI capex boom will support corporate profits but be a drag on employment.

The common thread across these views is that inflation will be resilient and this has been priced into the short end of the yield curve. When the market is pricing a certain scenario, it means that it is offering odds to take the other side and that is what has incited this now three-week exploration of duration risk. We don’t have a strong view on the direction of rates or the economy (who can) but the shape of the curve has created opportunities where investors are being paid to take duration risk which allows us to create portfolios that can outperform across economic scenarios.
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In terms of high-conviction views, we do have two that are related to this discussion. First, the 40-year secular bond bull market is over. We’ve broken out above the 40-year secular down trend channel and have been lingering at yield levels we haven’t seen since before the GFC. Second, after ~20-years of disinflation followed by a decade of consumer deleveraging a new inflationary trend has taken hold economically and most importantly psychologically. It’s important to note that neither of these long wavelength forces will play out linearly over the coming years, instead we will see cyclical ups and downs in interest rates and inflation.

These views seem to be held, at least in the short term, by the wider market, which may explain why the market is pricing in a temporary drop in rates followed by a return to 4% by 2031. This pricing makes sense considering the political pressure on the Fed to lower rates combined with a market view that the economy is fine and inflation is a latent problem. However, the future may, and often does, play out differently than may seem likely today so we are going to decompose the market’s expectations of Fed policy, via the SOFR curve, and back out a few scenarios of how Fed policy may unfold.
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The SOFR curve represents the market’s average expectations for Fed policy which means within it there are investors who are betting that rates will be higher, lower, and some who think there is no change. The SOFR curve therefore reflects the combination of all these individual views and is merely the price at which all those views are balanced out. Over the past two weeks we have looked at forward rates to estimate what bond total returns might be and today we are going to utilize the SOFR curve to estimate what short and intermediate treasury yields would be under different Fed policy rate paths giving us a different way to arrive at total returns. We can do this because a treasury bond can be replicated by buying a strip of SOFR futures and in fact this is what the bond market quants do to arbitrage any differences between the two markets. The SOFR futures are only liquid out to around 2031 which is why we are restricting our analysis to the 5-year and in part of the yield curve. We have decomposed these average expectations into three scenarios that account for possible paths of Fed policy based on the Fed’s own dot plot. What we’ve done in the chart below is show three broad scenarios for the path of short rates: 1) resurgent inflation which would call for the Fed to raise rates 100bps higher than the high-end of their own longer run expectations, 2) a no rate hike scenario which sees them lower rates to their longer run median level of 3% and hold them there, and 3) a lower for longer scenario where they lower rates 100bps lower than the low-end of their longer run expectations.

Once again, despite the conventional wisdom that the belly is rich we find that under several scenarios it would perform better than the other parts of the curve. This supports our earlier intuition that the market expectations of rates returning to 4% by 2031 leaves value in the belly of the curve despite the current inversion.

While this analysis is very rough and far from conclusive, what it shows is that there are deeper ways to look at relative value along the treasury yield curve. A more robust analysis, and one not as prone to bias as this one is, would be overly complicated for our purposes and wouldn’t yield much additional insight. What this analysis allows us to do is isolate different scenarios against current market pricing to discover any opportunities or latent risk exposures in our portfolios.
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Our current positioning does very well under an inflationary, positive dollar-bond correlation regime: when the dollar falls and rates rise, so naturally we want to look at disinflationary scenarios where the dollar rallies and/or bonds rally as we are exposed there. We have caught a few glimpses of what a stronger dollar would look like, and it is not pretty: it has tended to lead to lower stocks, bonds, gold, and higher crude. The positive correlation between the dollar and crude is counterintuitive, and the intermediate-term, realized correlations are currently negative but in these short-term, reflexive, risk-off dollar moves we do get a sense of what the next correlation regime may look like. This is just another reason to own crude in your portfolio as it seems to be acting as a long dollar proxy.

We are long tech, but we own a lot more PM and foreign equities which have been especially vulnerable to a stronger dollar. So, what if lower for longer rates run the US economy hot and the dollar firms? We’ve already bet in the direction the market is pricing: lower dollar, higher inflation, steeper curve; but what if all these reverse? Since tariffs are a tax, they could be disinflationary which would call for lower rates for longer and that could mean a firmer dollar as the economy runs hot on the back of the AI capex boom and dollar inflows keep interest rates low.
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All these potential scenarios seem unlikely today, but it is always a good exercise to game plan how the future may unfold and be proactive in risk management instead of being reactive and getting caught off-side. Currently the market is pushing back against Trump and most of his policies, however if he gets his way we could see some of these seemingly unlikely scenarios play out.

Source: https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/chg-issue-201-decomposing-duration

​Cedars Hill Group — September 22, 2025 — ​Issue 200! Thanks for investing your time in reading these musings on life and the markets for 200 issues. It is my sincerest hope that you have earned a good return on that investment.

After the Fed's 25bps cut last week this is how the yield curve changed week-over-week:

Yields increased from 5-years and out on the curve while short rates were mostly unchanged. Yields rose more for longer duration bonds which meant the worst performer on a risk-adjusted basis was the 30-year. The Fed meeting was negative for duration risk because the Fed didn’t cut 50bps and the market had priced in some probability that they would.
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We've been looking at the relationship between duration and crude oil due to the stagflation risk premium that had been priced into the market since Liberation Day. Since we first noticed this in early June the pressure on the Fed to lower rates has ramped up and the market has taken to pricing in lower rates while crude has continued to languish at the bottom of its recent trading range.

​One would think that as the equity market moved higher growth prospects were increasing and that crude oil would be supported, especially with the dollar down significantly, however the push higher in equity prices seems to have been due to the expectations for lower interest rates which would support financial assets but not necessarily physical assets. Gold's breakout to new all-time highs adds an element of "demonetization" to this picture.

It's probably safe to assume that the dollar would be lower than it is absent the increased imports we saw in April and May due to front-running of tariffs. Lower interest rates will certainly pull the dollar lower, and a lower dollar and interest rates are, at some point, supportive of domestic growth and commodities. We just haven't reached that point yet.

Paradoxically, it will likely require much weaker growth to get to that point which will not be supportive of equities. The underperformance of commodities and crude specifically has created this situation where they might rally at the onset of a recession as they price in the recovery while equities have yet to price in the recession. Therefore, we have these two important correlation dynamics (commodities-rates and equity-rates) that we need to pay attention to when constructing our portfolios.

This is critical because you have risky assets tied to growth such as equities and commodities that behave differently in different growth regimes providing distinct bets on different growth vectors. The 60/40 portfolio implicitly assumes a single correlation between the risky asset and the risk-free asset, but as we have already shown reality is far more nuanced than that. Just like there are many different stocks there are many kinds of bonds, each with different characteristics that will influence how they behave and their total return. We decompose fixed income risk into five factors: duration, yield curve, liquidity, credit, and optionality. When looking to diversify risky asset exposure with bonds you should primarily focus on duration and yield curve.

Last week, we showed you a way to look at the total return implied by forward rates for each point on the yield curve. The forward returns for the belly are the lowest because investors have bid up the belly of the curve as they have priced in the Fed cutting rates to approximately 3%. However, if the forward rates aren't realized then the total returns will be different, so we looked at what the forwards were pricing in terms of yield changes and found that despite the belly having rallied the most the forward rates implied the biggest jump in yields.
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This reveals a complex dynamic within the bond market and requires a knowledge of basic bond math to decipher the message the market is telling us. It is easy to look at the curve today and see that it continues to have this U-shape and assume that the market is overpricing rate cuts and that either short rates or long rates are the best place to be, but we've seen a small change in the steepness on the back of the "U" that has a large impact on the belly. Essentially the market is pricing in more inflation through a steeper curve from the 3-year to the 30-year than it was a year ago. The trough in the yield curve is slightly higher but the market is also expecting a sharper rise in yields once they bottom.

If we get that sharp deceleration in growth that would be negative for equities it is likely we'd see the market take out this steepening in the belly which would see it outperform. When we look at our equity and commodity risk in our portfolio and see this vulnerability to a sharp deceleration in growth this is how we identify a need to add some duration risk.

But once we've identified the need we need to decide what point on the curve to buy and now that has been reduced to the belly or the long end. We ruled out the long end because to get a bull flattener we would need to see deflationary growth or some sort of financial crisis that drives a bull flattener. The yield curve has just come out of one of the longest periods of inversion in history and we have seen a secular shift in inflation and the overall direction of interest rates so the hurdle to buy long bond duration is very high. The curve would need to be much, much steeper to start paying investors for taking on those risks.
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General knowledge about factors in the equity market is much better than factors in the bond market because bonds have been an afterthought in most investors' portfolio for a long time but as monetary policy becomes increasingly politicized as the institutional crisis wears on and we continue into a secular bond bear market all the different dimensions within the bond market will become increasingly important for bond investors.

Source: ​https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/chg-issue-200-decomposing-duration

Ascentage Group — September 22, 2025 — Our firm’s fall update (here) examines how technology is transforming the construction supply chain. We focus on three critical areas: supply chain operations, financial management of vendors and materials, and the growing push to reduce the industry’s carbon footprint.

While many of these technologies have been around for decades, current economic pressures—such as tariffs—have made them more relevant than ever.
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In this update, we spotlight 15 leading technology companies driving innovation in vendor management, payment solutions, and sustainability. We also provide an overview of notable M&A activity in this space over the past two years.

Source: ​https://ascentagegroup.com/construction-supply-chain-management-september-2025

​Cedars Hill Group — September 16, 2025 -- Portfolio construction is like building a house, if you only build with cheap materials, you will not have the most robust house. While this may appear on the surface like mental gymnastics to justify buying tech stocks it’s not and it's also not a rant against value investing. What hopefully unfolds from here is a nuanced approach that I recently gained a deeper appreciation for and wanted to share but also reinforce in my own mind.

I recently wanted to buy duration to balance out other risky bets in my portfolio but not having a view on the direction of rates presented a challenge. My intuition is that the market is leaning a bit too far ahead of what the Fed will actually do, absent a sharper economic slowdown, and at the same time I think the long end of the curve simply doesn't offer an attractive risk-reward tradeoff. I think that most non-professional investors think of bonds as solely income vehicles, but they also provide a duration risk component which causes the price of the bonds to move up and down with interest rates. They might look to buy bonds choosing based on the highest yielding ones without realizing they are taking on significant duration risk (and other risks depending on the type of bond). Duration risk introduces all sorts of complexities into the fixed income opportunity set while also creating opportunities for the discerning investor.

I was looking to get long both treasury duration and crude oil in equal risk dollar proportions. What this means is that if an average daily move in crude oil is 1% and an average daily move for the 5-year treasury yield is 5bps I wanted to own enough 5-year treasuries so that both positions would create a similar impact to the bottom line of my portfolio. For example, if my crude position is 10% of portfolio MV an average daily move would cause 10bps of up or down movement in my portfolio. Therefore, I wanted to own enough treasuries to cause a similar 10bps move in my portfolio.

When deciding which bonds to buy I had to pick a point on the curve, and each point has a different duration and would require a different amount of bonds to buy. I decided on the 5-year treasury because it was the shortest part of the curve with some duration. Twos have duration but they are more closely tied to FOMC policy, whereas fives include some intermediate term growth and inflation expectations that are more closely correlated with crude oil.
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After having put this trade on I saw a LinkedIn post from Skyler Weinand at Regan Capital about how rich the belly (5-10yr treasuries) are and I instantly thought "oh crap." But I also remembered putting on many trades based on similar analysis and not having it work out, so I decided to walk through the intuition behind both approaches and double check my intuition-based trade.
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Here is the screenshot from Skyler's post:

​​What he is doing here is rolling forward one year, assuming the only thing that changes is time (ie. that the 5-year one year will be a 4-year and so on). Then he tallies up what your total return would be from holding each point on the curve. The yield part of the return is easy, but determining the price change requires determining the 1-year forward yield for each tenor and then calculating any price change in the bond assuming the yield on that bond in one year ends up being the 1-year forward. If the forward rate is higher that means the price of the bond will go down over one year and vice versa. This analysis provides a richer view of the opportunity set on the yield curve because it factors in how the shape of the yield curve impacts bond returns.

An important caveat here is that the forward rates are not really market expectations of forward rates, they are merely the average future yield inferred from the spot yield curve (Harley Bassman is the rightful source of this distinction and you will find him referencing this in many of his posts which are all fantastic reads; this is the latest one where I found him citing this). That being said, the spot yield curve does reflect market expectations for growth, inflation, monetary, fiscal policy, etc. which does flow downstream into forward rates.

Skyler's analysis shows that the worst returns in one year will come from the 10-year, 7-year, and then the 5-year. Interestingly the 30-year offers a better forward return because the curve has been steepening and at a certain level the yield today more than offsets any future price decline. On the short end, where the curve remains inverted it is a bet on the pace of rate cuts. You get a higher yield in cash, but that yield can change very quickly, so you have a tradeoff between how long you lock in a certain yield versus receiving a higher yield in cash today.
I’ve always thought of this tradeoff in relation to volatility. You can sell implied volatility when it trades above realized, but eventually realized is going to increase and you will lose. It’s the old bird in hand versus two in the bush. Sometimes it makes sense to buy vol when it’s trading above realized because of events or other considerations, and the same logic holds true in the bond market.

In the hyper-competitive financial markets, most of the time the first order analysis is not enough; you need to think multiple moves ahead. When the curve is pricing in Fed rate cuts there is a reason just like there is a reason that implies trade above or below realized, and we need to think about the second order effects. In the bond market we have an inverted curve on the short end and a steepening curve on the long end. The inflection point is in the belly where short-term and long-term expectations collide.

Over the next six-to-twelve months there is simply less uncertainty absent any exogenous shocks but the further out we go the more uncertainty we have. If you look at the forward rates in Skyler’s table, you will see that the whole forward curve is in backwardation with shorter yields lower than higher yields. This means that after a drop of about 50bps the curve and economy will normalize. If we get a surprise the effect will be felt most in the belly because that is where there is the most potential for the actual path of interest rates to diverge from the forward rates.

The key assumption the market is making is that any downturn and resulting drop in yields will be short-lived. If investors saw a drop in yields as deflationary, we would not see the steepening of the long end of the curve and the forward curve would not be as steep. When the curve is flat forward yields are not significantly different than spot yields and hold less information value. When the curve is steep, forward rates tend to be higher than spot rates which makes owning duration look unattractive and increases uncertainty because there is more change priced into the market. On one hand the market is pricing in the very specific scenario of a cyclical downturn which leads to a short-lived drop in rates and on the other hand it is pricing in greater uncertainty in this outcome.
This contrast is the beauty of bond math; there are these crosscurrents that counterbalance each other and present unique risk-reward propositions. Today’s market pricing optically makes the belly unattractive. It is like when the equity market expects a pullback and bids up put skew which makes call spreads look cheaper, the market is begging you to stay in cash or the long end and offering you favorable pricing to do so. In this case we can determine that the belly of the curve stands to benefit the most from a unexpected drop in yields because it is pricing in the greatest increase in forward yields relative to spot yields.

Employing Pascalian Reasoning we can intuit a few different macro scenarios that are otherwise very difficult to do with your standard interest rate model. If you believe the forward curve, then you should keep your money in the front end because that is going to deliver the highest total return. If you think we see an upside surprise in the economy then you want to stay in cash because yields will move higher across the curve, likely in a bear steepening move. In this scenario, you would also be better off not in cash but in a risky asset that is not pricing in higher growth, like crude oil. If we get a downside surprise the curve will likely steepen with the belly outperforming. Cash is the superior investment in two of the three scenarios but that only considers fixed income investments. Expanding the opportunity set to risky assets we see that cash is the best investment only when the forward curve is correct. When the forward curve is not realized it happens because growth and inflation surprise in one direction but in either case the long end is not the best performing investment. The long end will outperform if we start pricing in disinflation or deflation and the curve flattens. While this is certainly possible, you are not getting paid good odds to make this bet today, for that to be the case we would need to see the curve significantly steeper. Therefore, even though the belly is optically rich, if you want to own duration that is still the best place to be because it is pricing in the largest expected increase in yields.

Source: ​https://cedarshillgroup.substack.com/p/chg-issue-199-why-it-can-sometimes

Investment to Expand the Organization, Accelerate the Product Roadmap, and Improve Customer Experience

Brookline, MA — August 13, 2025 — Facility Grid, a leading provider of cloud-based software engineered to streamline commissioning (Cx) and operational readiness (OR) activities in the construction industry, today announced a strategic investment from Nexa Equity, a growth-oriented private equity firm focused on partnering with founders to scale B2B software businesses. The partnership is a major milestone in Facility Grid’s mission to deliver cutting-edge solutions that empower commissioning providers, building owners, general contractors, and trade contractors to effectively track, verify, and manage building systems throughout construction and ongoing operations.

Founded to address the industry’s fragmentation, Facility Grid offers an intuitive, purpose-built platform for real-time tracking, documentation, and verification of building assets, equipment, and systems. The software helps customers improve construction quality, streamline commissioning, ensure compliance with project specifications, deliver projects on schedule, automate turnover documentation, and ultimately increase profit margins. Facility Grid’s customer base includes more than 150 commissioning providers, general contractors, trade contractors, and building owners across sectors such as data centers, healthcare, higher education, life sciences, manufacturing, and office.

This investment will bring significant new resources to Facility Grid, enabling the company to accelerate product development, expand customer support, and deepen its commitment to helping customers deliver high quality buildings on time and on budget. The company is grateful to its customers for their trust and partnership, which have been instrumental in reaching this milestone, and looks forward to continuing to serve them with even greater innovation and dedication.

“Nexa Equity’s investment is a pivotal step forward for our company,” said Eric Forman, CEO of Facility Grid. “We’re thrilled to have found a likeminded partner and excited for the benefits our customers will experience. Facility Grid will continue providing the reliable platform and services our customers trust, but we are now better positioned to innovate faster, expand our capabilities, and invest more deeply in the tools that drive their success.”

“We are excited to invest in Facility Grid to support its vision to deliver even greater value to project teams and building owners,” said Vlad Besprozvany, Founder and Managing Partner at Nexa Equity. “We look forward to working closely with the team to enhance the long-term value of their business.”

Joey Maloney, Partner at Nexa Equity, added, “Facility Grid has built a best-in-class platform that brings clarity, consistency, and control to essential commissioning and quality assurance processes. We are eager to support their continued growth as they scale their impact across the built environment.”

Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP served as legal counsel to Nexa Equity.

About Nexa Equity
Nexa Equity is a San Francisco-based private equity firm partnering with founder-led high-growth vertical SaaS companies that address markets underserved by technology to create long-term value for investors and portfolio companies. The firm manages more than $1 billion in assets. Nexa’s team brings substantial investing and operational expertise to help founders and management teams professionalize and scale their businesses for sustainable growth. For more information, please visit www.nexaequity.com.

About Facility Grid
Facility Grid is a leading cloud-based solution for commissioning and quality control, trusted by the world’s largest commissioning providers, data centers, general contractors, and building owners. It enables teams to seamlessly track, document, and report on building systems and equipment throughout installation, quality control, commissioning, and turnover. By facilitating efficient data capture and real-time schedule updates, Facility Grid increases the capacity of high value resources, enhances stakeholder communication, and streamlines turnover documentation. With a focus on driving operational excellence, it helps organizations optimize construction processes, reduce rework, and improve project outcomes across industries such as data centers, healthcare, education, manufacturing, and energy. For more information, please visit www.facilitygrid.com.

Contact:

Facility Grid
Susan Oblak
susan.oblak@facilitygrid.com

Nexa Equity
Mark Semer / Nathaniel Garnick
nexa@gasthalter.com 
Source: https://facilitygrid.com/news/facility-grid-receives-growth-investment-from-nexa-equity/

Oakline Holdings — August 7, 2025 — Oakline Holdings (“Oakline”), a Boston & Toronto based firm focused on investing in high-quality vertical market software businesses, is pleased to announce its investment in Anark Corporation (“Anark”), a Colorado based industrial software company providing technical data publishing and collaboration solutions.

Anark is a proven software supplier serving aerospace, defense, transportation, high tech and other industrial manufacturers. Its software extends the digital thread beyond traditional systems, empowering engineering, manufacturing, and supply chain teams to accelerate decision-making, reduce costs, and improve product quality. Anark integrates with existing engineering tools to deliver powerful 3D technical data and secure, collaborative workflows to the people and processes across the extended model-based enterprise. With this investment, Oakline seeks to build upon Anark’s market-leading position to expand its footprint and enhance its product offerings within the digital thread ecosystem.

“Partnering with Oakline is a significant opportunity to build on our success with the world’s most innovative manufacturers and accelerate the next phase of our growth,” said Fred Waugh, CEO of Anark. “As the industry shifts from legacy 2D documents to fully digital, 3D model-based processes, manufacturers need solutions that bridge engineering, manufacturing and the supply chain.”

“We are thrilled to be partnering with Anark’s talented team to build upon their market-leading position providing best-in-class engineering software to tier-one industrial manufacturers,” said Joe Mingail, Founder and CEO of Oakline. “We look forward to accelerating growth through continued investment and innovation in Anark’s employees, products, and customer service.”
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Ascentage Advisors served as an advisor to Anark on the transaction. Ascentage is a leading corporate development and M&A advisory firm addressing the strategic needs of growth-stage industrial software companies. The principals are registered representatives of Pickwick Capital Partners, LLC, a member of FINRA and SIPC.

About Anark
Anark Corporation provides technical data publishing and collaboration software that accelerates innovation by extending the digital thread for leading manufacturers, including Lockheed Martin, GE, Schaeffler, Boeing, and the U.S. Department of Defense. Engineering, manufacturing, supply chain, and quality teams use Anark to generate interactive 3D content that simplifies access to complex product data and the collaborative processes that use them. With over 20 years serving industrial innovators, Anark is advancing the model-based enterprise to help manufacturers speed time to market, improve quality, and reduce compliance risk. For additional information, visit anark.com.

About Oakline Holdings
Oakline invests in high-quality vertical market software businesses in partnership with management teams so they can not only think and act like an owner but also continue to be one. Partner businesses remain independent while being grouped into portfolios with related companies serving similar vertical markets, sharing in the upside value that affiliation with the platform creates. Oakline merges the long-term growth orientation of permanent capital with the partnership approach of private equity. For additional information, visit oaklineholdings.com.

​Contact
Andrew Hastings
Principal, Origination at Oakline Holdings andrew.hastings@oaklineholdings.com
Source: https://www.oaklineholdings.com/oakline-announces-its-investment-in-anark/​

Jonas Catalog Holdings acquires a portion of Jonas Brothers’ music catalog. Music Row, July 17, 2025 -- Jonas Catalog Holdings 1, a new strategic outlet managed by Jonas Group Entertainment Holdings, has acquired a significant portion of pop supergroup The Jonas Brothers‘ music catalog.

“Joining forces with Jonas Group Entertainment feels like coming full circle,” share the Jonas Brothers. “We are passionate about songwriting and the creative process, and Leslie DiPiero has always been a true champion for songwriters and creators. We look forward to working with her and the team.”

The deal includes the full Happiness Begins album, which includes hits such as 5x Platinum “Sucker” and “Only Human.” Also included in the transaction is their latest project The Album, which includes smash hit “Waffle House.” Other tunes part of the acquisition include “Like It’s Christmas,” which has amassed over 600 million streams, and “Remember This,” which was used during the 2020 Olympic Games and performed live by the band during the closing ceremony.
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“The foundation for every successful artist is the song, and Nick, Joe and Kevin are extraordinary songwriters,” says DiPiero, President of Jonas Group Publishing. “Their music has touched and inspired a generation of fans and fellow artists. It’s a privilege to welcome this body of work into the JGP family.”

“This catalog represents not just incredible commercial success, but cultural impact,” adds George Kreis, President of Jonas Group Entertainment. “Leslie and Kevin Jonas Sr. continue to lead with heart, vision and a deep belief in creators, and this catalog joins a dynamic roster that already includes Rhett Akins, Julia Michaels, Danger Twins/Amy Stroup, Justin Ebach, RaeLynn, David Kalmusky, Terri Jo Box and more.”

The transaction was made by Jonas Catalog Holdings 1, the investment entity founded by Kevin Jonas Sr. The entity is focused on strategic catalog acquisitions and long-term intellectual property in partnership with his Jonas Group Entertainment Holdings, which will oversee and lead the acquired assets, overseeing administration, synchronization, licensing and catalog development on behalf of Jonas Catalog Holdings 1. Recently, Jonas Group acquired Julia Michaels’ catalog, and also represent the catalogs of Rhett Akins, Danger Twins/Amy Stroup and Justin Ebach.

Corrum Capital served as the lead provider of debt financing for Jonas Catalog Holdings 1. The firm’s senior leadership team, headed by Co-Managing Partner Jonathan Mandle, played a key role in shaping the overall structure of the holding firm. Other participants in the debt syndicate include Bardin Hill, Cliffwater, and One William Street. Access Media Advisory (“AMA”), founded and led by Teresa Miles Walsh, provided strategic guidance and support to Jonas Group Holdings 1 throughout the process.
Source: https://musicrow.com/2025/07/jonas-catalog-holdings-acquires-portion-of-jonas-brothers-music-catalog/